Turnovers have had my attention for a while now. Most people just say they're unpredictable and move on. They are unpredictable, but they have such a big impact on games that I feel like I have to try. After all, win the turnover battle by one and historically you have over a 70% chance of winning the game. Win the battle by two and that goes over 80%.
I've been working on ways to model the likelihood of turnovers in a game to add as a component in my handicapping. Will it work? Like any theory, time will tell. This model is meant to predict projected turnover-worthy throws (TOWT) by a QB in each game. I'll update the model as the season goes along and see if it seems to have any value or not.
For now, it incorporates how many dropbacks a QB is likely to have, the pressure rate of the defense they're playing, and their rate of TOWT with and without pressure. The biggest thing it doesn't account for yet is pressure allowed by the offensive line. I'll incorporate this once we get a few weeks of data this season.
Projected Turnover-Worthy Throws Week 1
Detroit Lions (Goff): 1.27
Kansas City Chiefs (Mahomes): 0.9
Advantage: KC +0.37
Carolina Panthers (Young): Insufficient Data
Atlanta Falcons (Ridder): Insufficient Data
Advantage: Unknown
Cincinnati Bengals (Burrow): 1.27
Cleveland Browns (Watson): 1.45
Advantage: Cincinnati +0.18
Jacksonville Jaguars (Lawrence): 1.02
Indianapolis Colts (Richardson): Insufficient Data
Advantage: Unknown (But given Richardson's college career, probably Jags.)
Tampa Bay (Mayfield): 1.12
Minnesota (Cousins): 1.24
Advantage: Tampa Bay +0.12
Tennessee Titans (Tannehill): 0.71
New Orleans Saints (Carr): 1.1
Advantage: Tennessee +0.39
San Francisco 49ers (Purdy): 1.17
Pittsburgh Steelers (Pickett): 0.95
Advantage: Pittsburgh +0.22
Arizona Cardinals (Dobbs): Insufficient Data
Washington Commanders (Howell): Insufficient Data
Advantage: Unknown
Houston Texans (Stroud): Insufficient Data
Baltimore Ravens (Jackson): 0.76
Advantage: Unknown (Probably Baltimore since Lamar has one of the best scores this week.)
Green Bay Packers (Love): Insufficient Data
Chicago Bears (Fields): 1.1
Advantage: Unknown
Las Vegas Raiders (Garoppolo): 0.93
Denver Broncos (Wilson): 0.9
Advantage: Denver +0.03
Philadelphia Eagles (Hurts): 0.68
New England Patriots (Jones): 0.82
Advantage: Philadelphia +0.14
Miami Dolphins (Tagovailoa): 1.61
Los Angeles Chargers (Herbert): 0.71
Advantage: Los Angeles +0.9
Dallas Cowboys (Prescott): 1.38
New York Giants (Jones): 1.08
Advantage: New York +0.3
Los Angeles Rams (Stafford): 1.14
Seattle Seahawks (Smith): 1.54
Advantage: Los Angeles +0.4
Buffalo Bills (Allen): 1.69
New York Jets (Rodgers): 1.14
Advantage: New York +0.55
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