Want to know what I'm actually betting? Just scroll to the bottom!
GREEN BAY PACKERS +1.5 ---> +7.5
PFF just ranked the Packers as the best offensive line in the league through three weeks. On top of that, their defense seems to be ramping up their ability to pressure the QB and the coverage is holding up just fine. The Lions are a good team, but in Lambeau on the Thursday night it's hard to see this one getting out of hand--unless it's the Packers on the positive side of things.
BALTIMORE RAVENS +2.5 ---> +8.5
The Ravens are dealing with some growing pains in their new offense, but Zay Flowers has been incredible, and their offense has the potential to put up points in every game. The defense is dealing with the injury to Marcus Williams, among others, but they've remained solid enough if the offense can do its thing. Cleveland's defense is great, and they'll give the Ravens trouble, but Lamar's legs should help to escape some of the pressure. And Deshaun Watson has only looked good against one of the worst secondaries in the league. I'm not convinced he's going to get much done against above-average defenses.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -8 ---> -2
Holy D'Andre Swift! The Eagles haven't looked overly impressive to start the season, but they do look like they've found a featured running back. They've also been dealing with a host of defensive injuries, so as guys can get healthy it should help on that side of the ball. The Commanders aren't as bad as they looked against the Bills (they had 5 turnovers!), and they tend to give Philly some trouble, but these two teams are on different levels. I can see Washington covering the number, but it's hard to see them winning.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +3.5 ---> +9.5
I'm not pumped about putting out a Baker Mayfield-led team, but I can't ignore this matchup. Yes, the Saints defense is pretty good, and they may be able to pressure Mayfield into some mistakes (it's not too hard!). But the reality is that the Saints offense has not looked good this year and now Jameis Winston is at the helm. Baker may make some mistakes, but it's very likely Winston will against a good Bucs defense as well. Aside from defensive TDs I like this one to stay very close and go under. More than a TD should be more than enough.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -5.5 ---> +0.5
Oh boy. Here's another gross one. The Chargers could easily be 0-3 at this point and they find ways to fall short of expectations almost every week. Now they're without Mike Williams for the season as well. But in week 4, a team with equally incompetent coaching and a propensity to screw things up comes to town in the Las Vegas Raiders. There's a good chance Jimmy Garoppolo will be out with a concussion, and the Raiders don't have much in the way of backups. I think the Chargers get the W despite their inevitable attempts to screw it up.
BETS I'VE PLACED
Ravens +8.5 & Chargers +0.5 (-120) 1.2 Units / DraftKings
Packers +8.5 & Eagles -2 (-120) 1.2 Units / DraftKings
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